Unravelling the secrets of crisis detection and decisive action

The research project Unravelling the secrets of crisis detection and decisive action aims to answer why decision-makers do not act in time to avert major societal crises, despite good knowledge of threats and warning signals.

The project will also investigate what kind of knowledge and methods can lead to earlier and more effective action to stop creeping crises from exploding into acute crises. The goal is to develop an evidence-based method for detecting threats and counteracting crises.

Method for detecting threats and counteracting crises

The research project is structured in four phases, the first two of which will create an analytical framework, partly by describing the dynamics of threat-inducing societal processes, and partly by summarizing the current state of research on highreliability organisations (HRO), i.e. how organizations with high credibility successfully go from knowledge of threats and incidents to action.

In the next two phases of the project, the results will be applied to nine Swedish early warning systems in different sectors to evaluate how they work compared to best practice in HRO. These results will then be translated into recommendations on how to improve existing early warning systems. The project will analyse SMHI, the Public Health Agency of Sweden, the Swedish Psychological Defence Agency, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), the National Cyber Security Centre, the Risk Office, as well as early warning systems within the EU, Nordic cooperation and NATO.

Research on creeping crises

The project is a continuation of the research project on creeping crises, such as climate change, pandemics and cyberattacks, in which the researchers studied how these types of crises can be identified and stopped before it is too late.

The research is funded by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency with a grant of approximately SEK 12 million for the period 2024–2026. The project is a collaboration between researchers at the Swedish Defence University, Leiden University and Stockholm University.