Hybrid threats demand new strategies for intelligence services

In a new study, Mikael Weissmann examines how intelligence and security services need to adapt their operations to counter modern hybrid threats and antagonistic actors.
"They must think beyond traditional boundaries and develop collaborations and strategies that can address an increasingly complex and evolving threat landscape," he says.

Focusing particularly on small and medium-sized states, the study aims to understand the dynamics of the so-called grey zone — where the lines between war and peace are increasingly blurred in a complex security environment—and the new challenges these threats pose to intelligence and security services.

The analysis highlights how both state and non-state actors use hybrid warfare — a combination of military and non-military tactics — to exploit vulnerabilities in society. At the same time, new forms of threats are emerging, with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning playing an increasingly significant role in both offensive and defensive strategies.

"Traditional security strategies are no longer sufficient. Hybrid threats operate across multiple domains simultaneously and require new approaches to counter them," says Mikael Weissmann, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security at the Swedish Defence University.

Cooperation and flexibility are key

The study emphasises that there is no simple method for protecting against hybrid threats. The threat landscape is constantly changing, and actors continuously adapt their strategies as defensive measures evolve. Therefore, intelligence and security services must work flexibly and pragmatically, closely collaborating with both national and international actors.

"Cooperation must extend beyond traditional intelligence and defence structures. International collaboration should take place both within and outside NATO," he explains.

Gaps in defence against antagonist threats in the grey zone often arise in the spaces between different sectors and levels—gaps that adversaries exploit to maximise their success.

"It is therefore crucial to establish platforms for cooperation between military, political, and economic actors, including civil society. Additionally, a more advanced use of AI and machine learning is needed to identify and manage these threats," says Weissmann.

The growing importance of the information arena and cognitive warfare

The study also highlights the increasing significance of the so-called information arena, including media and public discourse, and cognitive warfare. Adversaries increasingly target societies' psychological resilience through disinformation, propaganda, and influence operations.

"This is why actors in this domain, whether in the public or private sector, should also be included in security efforts," Weissmann argues.

A comprehensive approach to a shifting threat landscape

Hybrid operations are designed to surprise their targets. When defensive measures succeed, adversaries adapt and change their tactics.

"A strategy that involves all relevant actors and includes both short-term and long-term perspectives is therefore essential," says Weissmann.

One effective approach could be the development of a more comprehensive total defence strategy.

"The more resilient a society is and the faster it can recover, the more effective its countermeasures will be," Weissmann concludes.